BMW X1 M35i vs Toyota RAV4 AWD Limited & XSE

Compact SUVs63 scenarios

Panel, equal weight

claude-haiku-5.5anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5 @ claude-haiku-5.5 via OpenRouter
deepseek-v4.1-flashdeepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash @ deepseek-v4.1-flash via OpenRouter
gemini-4-argongoogle/gemini-4-argon @ gemini-4-argon via OpenRouter
gpt-6-lunaopenai/gpt-6-luna @ gpt-6-luna via OpenRouter
mistral-large-4-0mistralai/mistral-large-4-0 @ mistral-large-4-0 via OpenRouter

Fast panel

Clear5 of 5 API models picked Toyota; the panel’s interval leans Toyota and excludes 50%.

BMW X1 M35i4%

Toyota RAV4 AWD Limited & XSE96%

Consensus95% interval 2–9%

The AI consensus leans to ⁨Toyota RAV4 AWD Limited & XSE⁩

Each model

Share for BMW X1 M35iLeans to …

Conditional pick share for BMW X1 M35i by judge (among scenarios where the judge picked a brand), with confidence intervals. 95% confidence intervals (hull of the scenario-clustered bootstrap and Wilson intervals, widened for small samples in battles and newer boards)
Judge (API model)	Share for BMW X1 M35i	Confidence interval	Leaning
claude-haiku-5.5	20%	10–32%	Leans to Toyota RAV4 AWD Limited & XSE
deepseek-v4.1-flash	0%	0–6%	Leans to Toyota RAV4 AWD Limited & XSE
gemini-4-argon	0%	0–6%	Leans to Toyota RAV4 AWD Limited & XSE
gpt-6-luna	2%	0–5%	Leans to Toyota RAV4 AWD Limited & XSE
mistral-large-4-0	0%	0–6%	Leans to Toyota RAV4 AWD Limited & XSE

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How votes are counted

Replay it as a dropSimulated

BMW

Toyota

Simulation: scenario paths made up to reproduce the published per-judge shares, not measured rows.

The AI consensus leans to Toyota

Published 95% confidence interval for BMW: 2–9%. Press Drop to watch simulated scenarios land.

How to read it

Each ball is a simulated buying scenario. Each row of pins is an AI model, pushing the ball toward the brand it picked.

One drop is one sample. Drop again and the pile shifts; the orange band shows where the balance lands in 95% of drops.

A leader is named only when the band clears the middle. The paths are simulated from the published per-judge shares: no model saw these scenarios.

Tap to drop. Hold to keep dropping.

The numbers behind the machine

Signed snapshot434ea9e936e0JSON

Embed

Free to embed. It shows the latest edition; keep the source line and the link.

Embed code (iframe)

<iframe src="https://pickbench.ai/embed/en/battle/bmw-x1-m35i-2026-49473-vs-toyota-rav4-awd-limited-xse-2026-50134/" title="Pickbench Brand Battle: BMW vs Toyota" width="100%" height="480" loading="lazy" frameborder="0" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" sandbox="allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox"></iframe>
<p><a href="https://pickbench.ai/en/battles/bmw-x1-m35i-vs-toyota-rav4-awd-limited-xse/">Source: Pickbench</a></p>

Static card (SVG)

How to read this

Each scenario offers the models both brands; the split is how often each is chosen. The headline is the panel consensus with equal model weights.
The band is the 95% interval for the left brand's share. A model leans to a brand only when its whole interval sits on one side of 50%.
95% confidence intervals (MOVER combination of the per-judge intervals, widened for small samples in battles and newer boards). The consensus gives equal weight to each model family. Per-judge results below are the primary measure.
A single model's view is one judge, not the consensus.
The drop machine is simulated: its paths reproduce the published per-model shares.
Need cuts are withheld below 30 scenarios.
Each page shows the latest edition. Dates are in the downloadable JSON.
Fast panel: the fast or small current models of each vendor, not the full flagship panel.

Details and sources

Configurations compared: 2026 BMW X1 M35i (Auto (AM-S7), 4 cyl, 2.0 L, Turbo) vs 2026 Toyota RAV4 AWD Limited & XSE (Auto (AV-S6), 4 cyl, 2.5 L)

Results computed but not published Only the overall consensus and per-judge results are published for this battle: each buyer need has fewer than 30 scenarios, the pre-registered minimum for a need row. See who was counted and why

Who was counted

The rule that decides which judges count was fixed before the run. Judges that met it are counted with the weights below; the others are listed with their reasons.

63 buyer scenarios were planned.
None of them was left out.

Consensus weights of 5 counted judges

Weight of each counted judge in the consensus
Judge (API model)	Model family	Weight in the consensus
`anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5 @ claude-haiku-5.5 via OpenRouter`	`anthropic`	20.0%
`deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash @ deepseek-v4.1-flash via OpenRouter`	`deepseek`	20.0%
`google/gemini-4-argon @ gemini-4-argon via OpenRouter`	`google`	20.0%
`openai/gpt-6-luna @ gpt-6-luna via OpenRouter`	`openai`	20.0%
`mistralai/mistral-large-4-0 @ mistral-large-4-0 via OpenRouter`	`mistral`	20.0%

Judges not counted

Every judge on the panel met the rule.

Results computed but not published

Per-need scenario counts (n) are computed deterministically from the pre-registered plan.

Buyer need: Daily commute: n = 14 scenarios (fewer than 30) — Fewer scenarios than the pre-registered minimum
Buyer need: Driving fun: n = 14 scenarios (fewer than 30) — Fewer scenarios than the pre-registered minimum
Buyer need: Family: n = 10 scenarios (fewer than 30) — Fewer scenarios than the pre-registered minimum
Buyer need: Reliability: n = 12 scenarios (fewer than 30) — Fewer scenarios than the pre-registered minimum
Buyer need: Low running costs: n = 13 scenarios (fewer than 30) — Fewer scenarios than the pre-registered minimum

Methodology

Each judge is an AI model called through an API; “About this result” names each model and how it was called. In each buyer scenario, the judge chooses between the two brands. The scenario is the unit of analysis.

The results are based on 63 buyer scenarios.

A judge leans to a brand only when its confidence interval excludes 50%. Point estimates alone never count as a win.

Precision figures on this page are measured.

Precision: Measured
Consensus, needs and languages: 95% confidence intervals (MOVER combination of the per-judge intervals, widened for small samples in battles and newer boards)
Per judge: 95% confidence intervals (hull of the scenario-clustered bootstrap and Wilson intervals, widened for small samples in battles and newer boards)
Scenario languages: English

Data warnings

Models chose on EPA specification facts only; purchase price, reliability and availability were not assessed.

About this result

What was measured, how, when, and how to check it.

Methodology

ACM-1.0

AI models (API)

anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5 @ claude-haiku-5.5 via OpenRouter, via OpenRouter (pinned providers)
deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash @ deepseek-v4.1-flash via OpenRouter, via OpenRouter (pinned providers)
google/gemini-4-argon @ gemini-4-argon via OpenRouter, via OpenRouter (pinned providers)
openai/gpt-6-luna @ gpt-6-luna via OpenRouter, via OpenRouter (pinned providers)
mistralai/mistral-large-4-0 @ mistral-large-4-0 via OpenRouter, via OpenRouter (pinned providers)

Conditions

Each model was called through the route listed next to it and chose between the two brands in 63 buyer scenarios. Scenario languages: English.

Judges counted

The pre-registered inclusion rule counted 5 of the 5 judges on the panel. The results use 63 of the 63 planned scenarios.

See who was counted and why

Pre-registration (SHA-256)

c918cf29b0b22318b9606b090f25f1c2f4cebd7b969211ac7328a7951dec90e7

What the pre-registration fixes

Signed snapshot

Verify this result: download the signed snapshot (JSON)

Signing key (kid): FnG9tqyrr6Y0YUh6teXhpERjAKUSfzL78m4WdnEZ9Jg; Production key
SHA-256 of the payload: 434ea9e936e02f0408b5fa53f9dfe7c29f52f1d799f92803a4b9da76e3024979

How to verify a snapshot

Rank, inclusion and influence on results are never sold.