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Toyota bZ vs Ford Mustang Mach-E AWD Extended

Electric cars48 scenarios

Panel, equal weight

  • claude-haiku-5.5anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5 @ claude-haiku-5.5 via OpenRouter
  • deepseek-v4.1-flashdeepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash @ deepseek-v4.1-flash via OpenRouter
  • gemini-4-argongoogle/gemini-4-argon @ gemini-4-argon via OpenRouter
  • gpt-6-lunaopenai/gpt-6-luna @ gpt-6-luna via OpenRouter
  • mistral-large-4-0mistralai/mistral-large-4-0 @ mistral-large-4-0 via OpenRouter
Fast panel

Too closeThe panel’s interval includes 50%: taken together, these 5 API models do not pick between Toyota and Ford.

Toyota bZ50%

Ford Mustang Mach-E AWD Extended50%

Consensus37–64%

Too close to call: the confidence interval includes 50%

Each model

Share for Toyota bZLeans to …

claude-haiku-5.566%53–79%Toyota bZ
deepseek-v4.1-flash44%30–59%Too close to call
gemini-4-argon44%30–58%Too close to call
gpt-6-luna47%33–62%Too close to call
mistral-large-4-050%35–64%Too close to call

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Replay it as a dropSimulated
Toyota
Ford

Simulation: scenario paths made up to reproduce the published per-judge shares, not measured rows.

Too close to call: the confidence interval includes 50%

Published 95% confidence interval for Toyota: 37–64%. Press Drop to watch simulated scenarios land.

How to read it

Each ball is a simulated buying scenario. Each row of pins is an AI model, pushing the ball toward the brand it picked.

One drop is one sample. Drop again and the pile shifts; the orange band shows where the balance lands in 95% of drops.

A leader is named only when the band clears the middle. The paths are simulated from the published per-judge shares: no model saw these scenarios.

Tap to drop. Hold to keep dropping.

The numbers behind the machine
Signed snapshota1c69863d0b7JSON
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How to read this
  • Each scenario offers the models both brands; the split is how often each is chosen. The headline is the panel consensus with equal model weights.
  • The band is the 95% interval for the left brand's share. A model leans to a brand only when its whole interval sits on one side of 50%.
  • 95% confidence intervals (MOVER combination of the per-judge intervals, widened for small samples in battles and newer boards). The consensus gives equal weight to each model family. Per-judge results below are the primary measure.
  • A single model's view is one judge, not the consensus.
  • The drop machine is simulated: its paths reproduce the published per-model shares.
  • Need cuts are withheld below 30 scenarios.
  • Each page shows the latest edition. Dates are in the downloadable JSON.
  • Fast panel: the fast or small current models of each vendor, not the full flagship panel.
Details and sources

Configurations compared: 2026 Toyota bZ (energy capacity 191 Ah) (Auto (A1)) vs 2026 Ford Mustang Mach-E AWD Extended (Auto (A1))

Results computed but not published Only the overall consensus and per-judge results are published for this battle: each buyer need has fewer than 30 scenarios, the pre-registered minimum for a need row. See who was counted and why

Who was counted

The rule that decides which judges count was fixed before the run. Judges that met it are counted with the weights below; the others are listed with their reasons.

  • 48 buyer scenarios were planned.
  • None of them was left out.
Consensus weights of 5 counted judges
Weight of each counted judge in the consensus
Judge (API model)Model familyWeight in the consensus
anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5 @ claude-haiku-5.5 via OpenRouteranthropic20.0%
deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash @ deepseek-v4.1-flash via OpenRouterdeepseek20.0%
google/gemini-4-argon @ gemini-4-argon via OpenRoutergoogle20.0%
openai/gpt-6-luna @ gpt-6-luna via OpenRouteropenai20.0%
mistralai/mistral-large-4-0 @ mistral-large-4-0 via OpenRoutermistral20.0%

Judges not counted

Every judge on the panel met the rule.

Results computed but not published

Per-need scenario counts (n) are computed deterministically from the pre-registered plan.

Buyer need: Daily commute
n = 8 scenarios (fewer than 30) — Fewer scenarios than the pre-registered minimum
Buyer need: Driving fun
n = 10 scenarios (fewer than 30) — Fewer scenarios than the pre-registered minimum
Buyer need: Family
n = 10 scenarios (fewer than 30) — Fewer scenarios than the pre-registered minimum
Buyer need: Reliability
n = 10 scenarios (fewer than 30) — Fewer scenarios than the pre-registered minimum
Buyer need: Low running costs
n = 10 scenarios (fewer than 30) — Fewer scenarios than the pre-registered minimum

Methodology

Each judge is an AI model called through an API; “About this result” names each model and how it was called. In each buyer scenario, the judge chooses between the two brands. The scenario is the unit of analysis.

The results are based on 48 buyer scenarios.

A judge leans to a brand only when its confidence interval excludes 50%. Point estimates alone never count as a win.

Precision figures on this page are measured.

Precision
Measured
Consensus, needs and languages
95% confidence intervals (MOVER combination of the per-judge intervals, widened for small samples in battles and newer boards)
Per judge
95% confidence intervals (hull of the scenario-clustered bootstrap and Wilson intervals, widened for small samples in battles and newer boards)
Scenario languages
English

Data warnings

  • Models chose on EPA specification facts only; purchase price, reliability and availability were not assessed.

About this result

What was measured, how, when, and how to check it.

Methodology
ACM-1.0
AI models (API)
  • anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5 @ claude-haiku-5.5 via OpenRouter, via OpenRouter (pinned providers)
  • deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash @ deepseek-v4.1-flash via OpenRouter, via OpenRouter (pinned providers)
  • google/gemini-4-argon @ gemini-4-argon via OpenRouter, via OpenRouter (pinned providers)
  • openai/gpt-6-luna @ gpt-6-luna via OpenRouter, via OpenRouter (pinned providers)
  • mistralai/mistral-large-4-0 @ mistral-large-4-0 via OpenRouter, via OpenRouter (pinned providers)
Conditions
Each model was called through the route listed next to it and chose between the two brands in 48 buyer scenarios. Scenario languages: English.
Judges counted

The pre-registered inclusion rule counted 5 of the 5 judges on the panel. The results use 48 of the 48 planned scenarios.

See who was counted and why

Pre-registration (SHA-256)
261bf93f4269772673afa7e8767d512bc91ec31b32415efdc46d351bab0391d7
What the pre-registration fixes
Signed snapshot

Verify this result: download the signed snapshot (JSON)

Signing key (kid)
FnG9tqyrr6Y0YUh6teXhpERjAKUSfzL78m4WdnEZ9Jg
Production key
SHA-256 of the payload
a1c69863d0b75053bb7103698dd684f23d4c952d44ac7c5c57c4fa40e20678bb

How to verify a snapshot

Rank, inclusion and influence on results are never sold.