Watches
Which brand 5 AI models pick, with intervals.
Fast panel · Panel, equal weight
- anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5 @ claude-haiku-5.5 via OpenRouter (20%)
- openai/gpt-6-luna @ gpt-6-luna via OpenRouter (20%)
- google/gemini-4-argon @ gemini-4-argon via OpenRouter (20%)
- mistralai/mistral-large-4-0 @ mistral-large-4-0 via OpenRouter (20%)
- deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash @ deepseek-v4.1-flash via OpenRouter (20%)
Too closeNo single favourite: Oris, Rolex, Seiko, and Tissot share the top tier for these 5 API models.
Tier 1
- Rolex53%95% interval 44–61%plausible rank 1–4
- Tissot49%95% interval 39–58%plausible rank 1–4
- Seiko45%95% interval 36–55%plausible rank 1–5
- Oris39%95% interval 30–48%plausible rank 1–6
Tier 2
- Citizen26%95% interval 18–35%plausible rank 3–9
- TAG Heuer20%95% interval 12–29%plausible rank 4–10
- Movado13%95% interval 7–21%plausible rank 5–10
- Timex10%95% interval 5–19%plausible rank 5–11
- Casio10%95% interval 5–19%plausible rank 5–11
Tier 3
- Shinola7%95% interval 3–15%plausible rank 6–11
- Fossil2%95% interval 0–8%plausible rank 8–11
Drag across the chart to probe a share.
Too closeNo single favourite: Oris, Rolex, Seiko, and Tissot share the top tier for these 5 API models.
| Brand | Choice share | 95% interval | Plausible rank | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rolex | 53% | 44–61% | 1–4 | Tier 1 |
| Tissot | 49% | 39–58% | 1–4 | Tier 1 |
| Seiko | 45% | 36–55% | 1–5 | Tier 1 |
| Oris | 39% | 30–48% | 1–6 | Tier 1 |
| Citizen | 26% | 18–35% | 3–9 | Tier 2 |
| TAG Heuer | 20% | 12–29% | 4–10 | Tier 2 |
| Movado | 13% | 7–21% | 5–10 | Tier 2 |
| Timex | 10% | 5–19% | 5–11 | Tier 2 |
| Casio | 10% | 5–19% | 5–11 | Tier 2 |
| Shinola | 7% | 3–15% | 6–11 | Tier 3 |
| Fossil | 2% | 0–8% | 8–11 | Tier 3 |
How to read this
- Choice share: how often models pick a brand when it appears in a shortlist of 4. Chance is 25%, the dashed line.
- The band is the 95% interval; the bright tick is the estimate. Overlapping bands are not a strict order.
- Tiers are published: a tier groups brands not distinguishable from that tier's leader. Same tier does not mean equal.
- Rank shows the plausible rank range, not a strict place.
- Drag across the chart to probe a share and see which intervals contain it.
- Brand names only: the models saw each option as a brand name, with no product facts, and answered from their own knowledge.
- Fast panel: the fast or small current models of each vendor, not the full flagship panel.
- Each page shows the latest edition. Dates are in the downloadable JSON.
Panel and conditions
Each edition puts the brands of the category to a panel of AI models, called through their APIs, in randomized shortlists of 4 (chance is 25%). Each option was a brand name only, with no product facts, prices or any commercial data, so a brand's share measures which brand the models recommend from their own knowledge for the shopper needs of the scenarios. Shares come with 95% intervals; tiers and rank intervals are simultaneous at the same level.
- anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5 @ claude-haiku-5.5 via OpenRouter (20%)
- openai/gpt-6-luna @ gpt-6-luna via OpenRouter (20%)
- google/gemini-4-argon @ gemini-4-argon via OpenRouter (20%)
- mistralai/mistral-large-4-0 @ mistral-large-4-0 via OpenRouter (20%)
- deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash @ deepseek-v4.1-flash via OpenRouter (20%)
Conditions: closed-book API calls via OpenRouter (pinned providers); web search, grounding, tools and retrieval off; forced choice; 2 paraphrases per scenario in English.
Methodology: ACM-1.0-chart-draft (draft rules for movement, significance and events, awaiting review).