Backpacks
Which brand 5 AI models pick, with intervals.
Fast panel · Panel, equal weight
- anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5 @ claude-haiku-5.5 via OpenRouter (20%)
- openai/gpt-6-luna @ gpt-6-luna via OpenRouter (20%)
- google/gemini-4-argon @ gemini-4-argon via OpenRouter (20%)
- mistralai/mistral-large-4-0 @ mistral-large-4-0 via OpenRouter (20%)
- deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash @ deepseek-v4.1-flash via OpenRouter (20%)
Too closeNo single favourite: Bellroy, Osprey, Peak Design, Thule, and Timbuk2 share the top tier for these 5 API models.
Tier 1
- Osprey57%95% interval 45–69%plausible rank 1–5
- Peak Design40%95% interval 28–52%plausible rank 1–7
- Bellroy39%95% interval 27–52%plausible rank 1–7
- Thule36%95% interval 26–47%plausible rank 1–8
- Timbuk228%95% interval 18–38%plausible rank 1–10
Tier 2
- The North Face21%95% interval 12–32%plausible rank 2–11
- Patagonia19%95% interval 11–31%plausible rank 2–11
- SwissGear11%95% interval 6–20%plausible rank 5–11
- Fjallraven10%95% interval 6–15%plausible rank 5–11
- Herschel Supply Co.9%95% interval 2–21%plausible rank 4–11
- Cotopaxi3%95% interval 1–7%plausible rank 6–11
Drag across the chart to probe a share.
Too closeNo single favourite: Bellroy, Osprey, Peak Design, Thule, and Timbuk2 share the top tier for these 5 API models.
| Brand | Choice share | 95% interval | Plausible rank | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Osprey | 57% | 45–69% | 1–5 | Tier 1 |
| Peak Design | 40% | 28–52% | 1–7 | Tier 1 |
| Bellroy | 39% | 27–52% | 1–7 | Tier 1 |
| Thule | 36% | 26–47% | 1–8 | Tier 1 |
| Timbuk2 | 28% | 18–38% | 1–10 | Tier 1 |
| The North Face | 21% | 12–32% | 2–11 | Tier 2 |
| Patagonia | 19% | 11–31% | 2–11 | Tier 2 |
| SwissGear | 11% | 6–20% | 5–11 | Tier 2 |
| Fjallraven | 10% | 6–15% | 5–11 | Tier 2 |
| Herschel Supply Co. | 9% | 2–21% | 4–11 | Tier 2 |
| Cotopaxi | 3% | 1–7% | 6–11 | Tier 2 |
How to read this
- Choice share: how often models pick a brand when it appears in a shortlist of 4. Chance is 25%, the dashed line.
- The band is the 95% interval; the bright tick is the estimate. Overlapping bands are not a strict order.
- Tiers are published: a tier groups brands not distinguishable from that tier's leader. Same tier does not mean equal.
- Rank shows the plausible rank range, not a strict place.
- Drag across the chart to probe a share and see which intervals contain it.
- Brand names only: the models saw each option as a brand name, with no product facts, and answered from their own knowledge.
- Fast panel: the fast or small current models of each vendor, not the full flagship panel.
- Beta: intervals are not yet small-sample calibrated.
- Each page shows the latest edition. Dates are in the downloadable JSON.
Panel and conditions
Each edition puts the brands of the category to a panel of AI models, called through their APIs, in randomized shortlists of 4 (chance is 25%). Each option was a brand name only, with no product facts, prices or any commercial data, so a brand's share measures which brand the models recommend from their own knowledge for the shopper needs of the scenarios. Shares come with 95% intervals; tiers and rank intervals are simultaneous at the same level.
- anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5 @ claude-haiku-5.5 via OpenRouter (20%)
- openai/gpt-6-luna @ gpt-6-luna via OpenRouter (20%)
- google/gemini-4-argon @ gemini-4-argon via OpenRouter (20%)
- mistralai/mistral-large-4-0 @ mistral-large-4-0 via OpenRouter (20%)
- deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash @ deepseek-v4.1-flash via OpenRouter (20%)
Conditions: closed-book API calls via OpenRouter (pinned providers); web search, grounding, tools and retrieval off; forced choice; 2 paraphrases per scenario in English.
Methodology: ACM-1.0-chart-draft (draft rules for movement, significance and events, awaiting review).