Outdoor jackets
Which brand 4 AI models pick, with intervals.
Fast panel · Panel, equal weight
- anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5 @ claude-haiku-5.5 via OpenRouter (25%)
- openai/gpt-6-luna @ gpt-6-luna via OpenRouter (25%)
- google/gemini-4-argon @ gemini-4-argon via OpenRouter (25%)
- mistralai/mistral-large-4-0 @ mistral-large-4-0 via OpenRouter (25%)
Too closeNo single favourite: Arc'teryx and Patagonia share the top tier for these 4 API models.
Tier 1
- Patagonia62%95% interval 51–73%plausible rank 1–2
- Arc'teryx57%95% interval 45–69%plausible rank 1–3
Tier 2
- Outdoor Research31%95% interval 22–42%plausible rank 3–9
- The North Face26%95% interval 15–38%plausible rank 3–10
- L.L.Bean25%95% interval 15–37%plausible rank 2–10
- Helly Hansen19%95% interval 11–30%plausible rank 3–11
- REI Co-op17%95% interval 9–27%plausible rank 3–11
- Eddie Bauer14%95% interval 7–24%plausible rank 3–11
- Marmot13%95% interval 8–21%plausible rank 3–11
Tier 3
- Columbia7%95% interval 2–14%plausible rank 4–11
- Cotopaxi3%95% interval 0–11%plausible rank 6–11
Drag across the chart to probe a share.
Too closeNo single favourite: Arc'teryx and Patagonia share the top tier for these 4 API models.
| Brand | Choice share | 95% interval | Plausible rank | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patagonia | 62% | 51–73% | 1–2 | Tier 1 |
| Arc'teryx | 57% | 45–69% | 1–3 | Tier 1 |
| Outdoor Research | 31% | 22–42% | 3–9 | Tier 2 |
| The North Face | 26% | 15–38% | 3–10 | Tier 2 |
| L.L.Bean | 25% | 15–37% | 2–10 | Tier 2 |
| Helly Hansen | 19% | 11–30% | 3–11 | Tier 2 |
| REI Co-op | 17% | 9–27% | 3–11 | Tier 2 |
| Eddie Bauer | 14% | 7–24% | 3–11 | Tier 2 |
| Marmot | 13% | 8–21% | 3–11 | Tier 2 |
| Columbia | 7% | 2–14% | 4–11 | Tier 3 |
| Cotopaxi | 3% | 0–11% | 6–11 | Tier 3 |
How to read this
- Choice share: how often models pick a brand when it appears in a shortlist of 4. Chance is 25%, the dashed line.
- The band is the 95% interval; the bright tick is the estimate. Overlapping bands are not a strict order.
- Tiers are published: a tier groups brands not distinguishable from that tier's leader. Same tier does not mean equal.
- Rank shows the plausible rank range, not a strict place.
- Drag across the chart to probe a share and see which intervals contain it.
- Brand names only: the models saw each option as a brand name, with no product facts, and answered from their own knowledge.
- Fast panel: the fast or small current models of each vendor, not the full flagship panel.
- Beta: intervals are not yet small-sample calibrated.
- Each page shows the latest edition. Dates are in the downloadable JSON.
Panel and conditions
Each edition puts the brands of the category to a panel of AI models, called through their APIs, in randomized shortlists of 4 (chance is 25%). Each option was a brand name only, with no product facts, prices or any commercial data, so a brand's share measures which brand the models recommend from their own knowledge for the shopper needs of the scenarios. Shares come with 95% intervals; tiers and rank intervals are simultaneous at the same level.
- anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5 @ claude-haiku-5.5 via OpenRouter (25%)
- openai/gpt-6-luna @ gpt-6-luna via OpenRouter (25%)
- google/gemini-4-argon @ gemini-4-argon via OpenRouter (25%)
- mistralai/mistral-large-4-0 @ mistral-large-4-0 via OpenRouter (25%)
Conditions: closed-book API calls via OpenRouter (pinned providers); web search, grounding, tools and retrieval off; forced choice; 2 paraphrases per scenario in English.
Methodology: ACM-1.0-chart-draft (draft rules for movement, significance and events, awaiting review).