Face moisturizers
Which brand 5 AI models pick, with intervals.
Fast panel · Panel, equal weight
- anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5 @ claude-haiku-5.5 via OpenRouter (20%)
- openai/gpt-6-luna @ gpt-6-luna via OpenRouter (20%)
- google/gemini-4-argon @ gemini-4-argon via OpenRouter (20%)
- mistralai/mistral-large-4-0 @ mistral-large-4-0 via OpenRouter (20%)
- deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash @ deepseek-v4.1-flash via OpenRouter (20%)
Too closeNo single favourite: CeraVe, Cetaphil, Clinique, Neutrogena, and Tatcha share the top tier for these 5 API models.
Tier 1
- CeraVe53%95% interval 40–65%plausible rank 1–5
- Clinique44%95% interval 33–55%plausible rank 1–7
- Tatcha34%95% interval 22–46%plausible rank 1–8
- Cetaphil33%95% interval 21–45%plausible rank 1–10
- Neutrogena25%95% interval 15–38%plausible rank 1–11
Tier 2
- Drunk Elephant22%95% interval 14–32%plausible rank 2–11
- Olay21%95% interval 13–31%plausible rank 2–11
- e.l.f. SKIN13%95% interval 6–24%plausible rank 3–11
- Glow Recipe11%95% interval 5–21%plausible rank 4–11
- Fresh11%95% interval 5–17%plausible rank 4–11
- Bubble Skincare8%95% interval 3–14%plausible rank 5–11
Drag across the chart to probe a share.
Too closeNo single favourite: CeraVe, Cetaphil, Clinique, Neutrogena, and Tatcha share the top tier for these 5 API models.
| Brand | Choice share | 95% interval | Plausible rank | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CeraVe | 53% | 40–65% | 1–5 | Tier 1 |
| Clinique | 44% | 33–55% | 1–7 | Tier 1 |
| Tatcha | 34% | 22–46% | 1–8 | Tier 1 |
| Cetaphil | 33% | 21–45% | 1–10 | Tier 1 |
| Neutrogena | 25% | 15–38% | 1–11 | Tier 1 |
| Drunk Elephant | 22% | 14–32% | 2–11 | Tier 2 |
| Olay | 21% | 13–31% | 2–11 | Tier 2 |
| e.l.f. SKIN | 13% | 6–24% | 3–11 | Tier 2 |
| Glow Recipe | 11% | 5–21% | 4–11 | Tier 2 |
| Fresh | 11% | 5–17% | 4–11 | Tier 2 |
| Bubble Skincare | 8% | 3–14% | 5–11 | Tier 2 |
How to read this
- Choice share: how often models pick a brand when it appears in a shortlist of 4. Chance is 25%, the dashed line.
- The band is the 95% interval; the bright tick is the estimate. Overlapping bands are not a strict order.
- Tiers are published: a tier groups brands not distinguishable from that tier's leader. Same tier does not mean equal.
- Rank shows the plausible rank range, not a strict place.
- Drag across the chart to probe a share and see which intervals contain it.
- Brand names only: the models saw each option as a brand name, with no product facts, and answered from their own knowledge.
- Fast panel: the fast or small current models of each vendor, not the full flagship panel.
- Beta: intervals are not yet small-sample calibrated.
- Each page shows the latest edition. Dates are in the downloadable JSON.
Panel and conditions
Each edition puts the brands of the category to a panel of AI models, called through their APIs, in randomized shortlists of 4 (chance is 25%). Each option was a brand name only, with no product facts, prices or any commercial data, so a brand's share measures which brand the models recommend from their own knowledge for the shopper needs of the scenarios. Shares come with 95% intervals; tiers and rank intervals are simultaneous at the same level.
- anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5 @ claude-haiku-5.5 via OpenRouter (20%)
- openai/gpt-6-luna @ gpt-6-luna via OpenRouter (20%)
- google/gemini-4-argon @ gemini-4-argon via OpenRouter (20%)
- mistralai/mistral-large-4-0 @ mistral-large-4-0 via OpenRouter (20%)
- deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash @ deepseek-v4.1-flash via OpenRouter (20%)
Conditions: closed-book API calls via OpenRouter (pinned providers); web search, grounding, tools and retrieval off; forced choice; 2 paraphrases per scenario in English.
Methodology: ACM-1.0-chart-draft (draft rules for movement, significance and events, awaiting review).