Grocery delivery services
Which brand 4 AI models pick, with intervals.
Fast panel · Panel, equal weight
- anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5 @ claude-haiku-5.5 via OpenRouter (25%)
- openai/gpt-6-luna @ gpt-6-luna via OpenRouter (25%)
- mistralai/mistral-large-4-0 @ mistral-large-4-0 via OpenRouter (25%)
- deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash @ deepseek-v4.1-flash via OpenRouter (25%)
Too closeNo single favourite: FreshDirect, Instacart, Kroger, and Walmart share the top tier for these 4 API models.
Tier 1
- Instacart62%95% interval > 50%–74%plausible rank 1–4
- FreshDirect44%95% interval 30–58%plausible rank 1–5
- Kroger36%95% interval 24–48%plausible rank 1–7
- Walmart34%95% interval 22–48%plausible rank 1–9
Tier 2
- Amazon Fresh26%95% interval 17–37%plausible rank 2–9
- Shipt17%95% interval 8–28%plausible rank 3–9
- Albertsons15%95% interval 7–24%plausible rank 3–9
- DoorDash8%95% interval 2–17%plausible rank 4–10
- Gopuff8%95% interval 2–19%plausible rank 4–10
Tier 3
- Uber Eats0%95% interval 0–10%plausible rank 8–10
Drag across the chart to probe a share.
Too closeNo single favourite: FreshDirect, Instacart, Kroger, and Walmart share the top tier for these 4 API models.
| Brand | Choice share | 95% interval | Plausible rank | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Instacart | 62% | > 50%–74% | 1–4 | Tier 1 |
| FreshDirect | 44% | 30–58% | 1–5 | Tier 1 |
| Kroger | 36% | 24–48% | 1–7 | Tier 1 |
| Walmart | 34% | 22–48% | 1–9 | Tier 1 |
| Amazon Fresh | 26% | 17–37% | 2–9 | Tier 2 |
| Shipt | 17% | 8–28% | 3–9 | Tier 2 |
| Albertsons | 15% | 7–24% | 3–9 | Tier 2 |
| DoorDash | 8% | 2–17% | 4–10 | Tier 2 |
| Gopuff | 8% | 2–19% | 4–10 | Tier 2 |
| Uber Eats | 0% | 0–10% | 8–10 | Tier 3 |
How to read this
- Choice share: how often models pick a brand when it appears in a shortlist of 4. Chance is 25%, the dashed line.
- The band is the 95% interval; the bright tick is the estimate. Overlapping bands are not a strict order.
- Tiers are published: a tier groups brands not distinguishable from that tier's leader. Same tier does not mean equal.
- Rank shows the plausible rank range, not a strict place.
- Drag across the chart to probe a share and see which intervals contain it.
- Brand names only: the models saw each option as a brand name, with no product facts, and answered from their own knowledge.
- Fast panel: the fast or small current models of each vendor, not the full flagship panel.
- Beta: intervals are not yet small-sample calibrated.
- Each page shows the latest edition. Dates are in the downloadable JSON.
Panel and conditions
Each edition puts the brands of the category to a panel of AI models, called through their APIs, in randomized shortlists of 4 (chance is 25%). Each option was a brand name only, with no product facts, prices or any commercial data, so a brand's share measures which brand the models recommend from their own knowledge for the shopper needs of the scenarios. Shares come with 95% intervals; tiers and rank intervals are simultaneous at the same level.
- anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5 @ claude-haiku-5.5 via OpenRouter (25%)
- openai/gpt-6-luna @ gpt-6-luna via OpenRouter (25%)
- mistralai/mistral-large-4-0 @ mistral-large-4-0 via OpenRouter (25%)
- deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash @ deepseek-v4.1-flash via OpenRouter (25%)
Conditions: closed-book API calls via OpenRouter (pinned providers); web search, grounding, tools and retrieval off; forced choice; 2 paraphrases per scenario in English.
Methodology: ACM-1.0-chart-draft (draft rules for movement, significance and events, awaiting review).