Sofas
Which brand 4 AI models pick, with intervals.
Fast panel · Panel, equal weight
- anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5 @ claude-haiku-5.5 via OpenRouter (25%)
- openai/gpt-6-luna @ gpt-6-luna via OpenRouter (25%)
- google/gemini-4-argon @ gemini-4-argon via OpenRouter (25%)
- deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash @ deepseek-v4.1-flash via OpenRouter (25%)
Too closeNo single favourite: Crate & Barrel, Ethan Allen, IKEA, La-Z-Boy, Lovesac, and Room & Board share the top tier for these 4 API models.
Tier 1
- Room & Board52%95% interval 40–62%plausible rank 1–3
- Lovesac46%95% interval 35–58%plausible rank 1–6
- Ethan Allen29%95% interval 20–40%plausible rank 2–10
- La-Z-Boy28%95% interval 20–38%plausible rank 2–10
- Crate & Barrel26%95% interval 18–35%plausible rank 2–11
- IKEA25%95% interval 16–37%plausible rank 1–11
Tier 2
- Article20%95% interval 11–30%plausible rank 3–11
- Castlery20%95% interval 11–30%plausible rank 3–11
- Living Spaces12%95% interval 6–21%plausible rank 3–11
- West Elm10%95% interval 4–18%plausible rank 3–11
- Ashley Furniture8%95% interval 3–17%plausible rank 5–11
Drag across the chart to probe a share.
Left out: 1 AI model
Queried but not counted: the pre-registered inclusion rule left these models out of every share.
- mistralai/mistral-large-4-0 @ mistral-large-4-0 via OpenRouter: Too few valid answers (below the pre-registered minimum), Fewer scenarios than the pre-registered minimum, and Answered too few of the planned scenarios (41% valid answers)
Too closeNo single favourite: Crate & Barrel, Ethan Allen, IKEA, La-Z-Boy, Lovesac, and Room & Board share the top tier for these 4 API models.
| Brand | Choice share | 95% interval | Plausible rank | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Room & Board | 52% | 40–62% | 1–3 | Tier 1 |
| Lovesac | 46% | 35–58% | 1–6 | Tier 1 |
| Ethan Allen | 29% | 20–40% | 2–10 | Tier 1 |
| La-Z-Boy | 28% | 20–38% | 2–10 | Tier 1 |
| Crate & Barrel | 26% | 18–35% | 2–11 | Tier 1 |
| IKEA | 25% | 16–37% | 1–11 | Tier 1 |
| Article | 20% | 11–30% | 3–11 | Tier 2 |
| Castlery | 20% | 11–30% | 3–11 | Tier 2 |
| Living Spaces | 12% | 6–21% | 3–11 | Tier 2 |
| West Elm | 10% | 4–18% | 3–11 | Tier 2 |
| Ashley Furniture | 8% | 3–17% | 5–11 | Tier 2 |
How to read this
- Choice share: how often models pick a brand when it appears in a shortlist of 4. Chance is 25%, the dashed line.
- The band is the 95% interval; the bright tick is the estimate. Overlapping bands are not a strict order.
- Tiers are published: a tier groups brands not distinguishable from that tier's leader. Same tier does not mean equal.
- Rank shows the plausible rank range, not a strict place.
- Drag across the chart to probe a share and see which intervals contain it.
- Brand names only: the models saw each option as a brand name, with no product facts, and answered from their own knowledge.
- Fast panel: the fast or small current models of each vendor, not the full flagship panel.
- Beta: intervals are not yet small-sample calibrated.
- Each page shows the latest edition. Dates are in the downloadable JSON.
Panel and conditions
Each edition puts the brands of the category to a panel of AI models, called through their APIs, in randomized shortlists of 4 (chance is 25%). Each option was a brand name only, with no product facts, prices or any commercial data, so a brand's share measures which brand the models recommend from their own knowledge for the shopper needs of the scenarios. Shares come with 95% intervals; tiers and rank intervals are simultaneous at the same level.
- anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5 @ claude-haiku-5.5 via OpenRouter (25%)
- openai/gpt-6-luna @ gpt-6-luna via OpenRouter (25%)
- google/gemini-4-argon @ gemini-4-argon via OpenRouter (25%)
- deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash @ deepseek-v4.1-flash via OpenRouter (25%)
Conditions: closed-book API calls via OpenRouter (pinned providers); web search, grounding, tools and retrieval off; forced choice; 2 paraphrases per scenario in English.
Methodology: ACM-1.0-chart-draft (draft rules for movement, significance and events, awaiting review).