Ride-hailing services
Which brand 5 AI models pick, with intervals.
Fast panel · Panel, equal weight
- anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5 @ claude-haiku-5.5 via OpenRouter (20%)
- openai/gpt-6-luna @ gpt-6-luna via OpenRouter (20%)
- google/gemini-4-argon @ gemini-4-argon via OpenRouter (20%)
- mistralai/mistral-large-4-0 @ mistral-large-4-0 via OpenRouter (20%)
- deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash @ deepseek-v4.1-flash via OpenRouter (20%)
Tier 1
- Uber64%95% interval 53–75%plausible rank 1
Tier 2
- Lyft41%95% interval 29–52%plausible rank 2–4
- Blacklane30%95% interval 19–41%plausible rank 2–6
- Waymo24%95% interval 15–35%plausible rank 2–6
Tier 3
- Curb15%95% interval 9–23%plausible rank 3–8
- Alto15%95% interval 10–22%plausible rank 3–7
- Zoox7%95% interval 1–16%plausible rank 5–8
- Tesla Robotaxi4%95% interval 0–12%plausible rank 6–8
Drag across the chart to probe a share.
| Brand | Choice share | 95% interval | Plausible rank | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Uber | 64% | 53–75% | 1 | Tier 1 |
| Lyft | 41% | 29–52% | 2–4 | Tier 2 |
| Blacklane | 30% | 19–41% | 2–6 | Tier 2 |
| Waymo | 24% | 15–35% | 2–6 | Tier 2 |
| Curb | 15% | 9–23% | 3–8 | Tier 3 |
| Alto | 15% | 10–22% | 3–7 | Tier 3 |
| Zoox | 7% | 1–16% | 5–8 | Tier 3 |
| Tesla Robotaxi | 4% | 0–12% | 6–8 | Tier 3 |
How to read this
- Choice share: how often models pick a brand when it appears in a shortlist of 4. Chance is 25%, the dashed line.
- The band is the 95% interval; the bright tick is the estimate. Overlapping bands are not a strict order.
- Tiers are published: a tier groups brands not distinguishable from that tier's leader. Same tier does not mean equal.
- Rank shows the plausible rank range, not a strict place.
- Drag across the chart to probe a share and see which intervals contain it.
- Brand names only: the models saw each option as a brand name, with no product facts, and answered from their own knowledge.
- Fast panel: the fast or small current models of each vendor, not the full flagship panel.
- Each page shows the latest edition. Dates are in the downloadable JSON.
Panel and conditions
Each edition puts the brands of the category to a panel of AI models, called through their APIs, in randomized shortlists of 4 (chance is 25%). Each option was a brand name only, with no product facts, prices or any commercial data, so a brand's share measures which brand the models recommend from their own knowledge for the shopper needs of the scenarios. Shares come with 95% intervals; tiers and rank intervals are simultaneous at the same level.
- anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5 @ claude-haiku-5.5 via OpenRouter (20%)
- openai/gpt-6-luna @ gpt-6-luna via OpenRouter (20%)
- google/gemini-4-argon @ gemini-4-argon via OpenRouter (20%)
- mistralai/mistral-large-4-0 @ mistral-large-4-0 via OpenRouter (20%)
- deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash @ deepseek-v4.1-flash via OpenRouter (20%)
Conditions: closed-book API calls via OpenRouter (pinned providers); web search, grounding, tools and retrieval off; forced choice; 2 paraphrases per scenario in English.
Methodology: ACM-1.0-chart-draft (draft rules for movement, significance and events, awaiting review).